Battery demand is growing exponentially, driven by a domino effect of adoption that cascades from country to country and from sector to sector. This battery domino effect is set to enable the rapid phaseout of half of global fossil fuel demand and be instrumental in abating transport and power emissions. This is the conclusion of RMI’s recently published report X-Change: Batteries. In this article, we highlight six of the key messages from the report.
1. Battery sales are growing exponentially up S-curves
Battery sales are growing exponentially up classic S-curves that characterize the growth of disruptive new technologies. For thirty years, sales have been doubling every two to three years, enjoying a 33 percent average growth rate. In the past decade, as electric cars have taken off, it has been closer to 40 percent.
Exhibit 1: Global battery sales by sector, GWh/y
2. Battery costs keep falling while quality rises
As volumes increased, battery costs plummeted and energy density — a key metric of a battery’s quality — rose steadily. Over the past 30 years, battery costs have fallen by a dramatic 99 percent; meanwhile, the density of top-tier cells has risen fivefold. As is the case for many modular technologies, the more batteries we deploy, the cheaper they get, which in turn fuels more deployment. For every doubling of deployment, battery costs have fallen by 19 percent. Couple these cost declines with density gains of 7 percent for every deployment doubling and batteries are the fastest-improving clean energy technology.
