What will emerge in response to COVID-19 is still uncertain and up for grabs. Rail franchising in Great Britain ended on 23rd March 2020 when Grant Shapps confirmed that the train operating company franchises would become direct management contracts. Although a response to a crisis, we have been moving towards this moment for some time and we are highly unlikely to go back.
Back in 1996 franchising was a radical departure from what had gone before it. After incremental reform over the years and through successive governments it has become unrecognisable from the original plan. Now it is certain to change further. But change is far more likely to be led by circumstances rather than a new radical and rational settlement, as was assumed would happen after the Williams Rail Review. What is decided in crisis could leave a long legacy.
The introduction of rail franchising was a relatively rare thing in British politics, a radical policy change, deliberated over time, and a significant departure from what had gone before. When it comes to policy, the United Kingdom is more used to disjointed incremental policy changes. Muddling through, as it is also known, is what has characterised rail policy for the last few years. Tinkering with franchise lengths, network geographies and other technicalities. Although you could argue that is exactly how it was intended to operate.
I once heard a spirited defence of franchising from a senior civil servant. It went something along the lines of how the rail industry is lucky to have built into the system the regular thorough reassessment of customer need, the opportunity to specify a new standard of service and put these out to tender. Although I have some sympathy for this view, I do wonder if there is another way to replicate these benefits of innovation in a business model that does not require, for example, the name and branding of train services to be changed every couple of years for no good reason.
Recently the Department for Transport seems to have fallen out of love with the franchising tendering process, instead we’ve seen direct awards to existing operators such as Southeastern and franchises such as Northern Trains taken back in house.
The COVID-19 crisis has forced the issue of reform. With significantly reduced passenger numbers combined with the need to keep the network running for keyworkers the franchising model no longer works. On 23rd March 2020 the franchises became direct management contracts with the revenue risks taken over by the state. In theory things will return to the status quo antebellum at a future date, but the idea of anything going back to normal is far from certain.
