A significant amount of time, effort, capital, brainpower and, yes, energy is being spent developing solutions intended to cut transportation’s greenhouse gas emissions. Many of these efforts — such as self-driving robotaxis and electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxis — are laudable, incorporating cutting-edge technologies. But in our rush to address the myriad contributors to the climate crisis, we often fail to see the bigger picture of how these forces interact. Tackling one problem can lead to unforeseen consequences that inadvertently push the goal line further away.
While self-driving cars and robotaxis were once hailed as a solution to climate-harming congestion, they may actually make the climate situation worse. I believe they will have major unintended negative consequences with second- and third-order effects that will seriously undermine climate goals.
The Transportation Climate Problem
Transportation is now the U.S.’ leading source of greenhouse gas emissions, with cars, SUVs, pickup trucks and minivans representing the largest share of that category. Carbon dioxide emissions from transportation have grown from 2021 to 2023 after a brief pandemic pause and are on track to increase.