Friday Reads – 25 October 2019

1. The measureable improvement in London’s air quality is a remarkable achievement, especially compared to Paris which is struggling to make any headway.

   Reading the TfL report, it’s interesting to note that the improvement in air quality was gradual, not sudden. This suggests that most people upgraded slowly ahead of time, rather than being fined into submission. In turn, this means that the mere announcement of the ULEZ expansion has already encouraged some drivers to upgrade, despite it being delayed to 2021.

2. The thing about the central London ULEZ is that very few people live there, so virtually all the traffic comes from people driving into the area, and of these virtually all of the private cars will be driven by well off people, who can afford to upgrade their cars on a regular basis (or indeed have more than one). Indeed I’d imagine that virtually all of the 23% of non compliant vehicles will be commercial vehicles, especially as diesels have to be Euro 6 compliant whereas petrols only need to be Euro 4 compliant.

   The next phase will be far more controversial as it will include a large part of residential London, especially in North London as the A406 boundary is a lot further out than the A205 boundary in South London.

3. @Mikey C
   I’m not at all sure that this analysis is right. Private cars now make up quite a small proportion of traffic in central London. Buses, taxis, PHVs and commercial vehicles (in particular) make up the bulk of the motorised traffic. Nor will all the traffic, of any sort, in central London necessarily be terminating there. Despite the congestion charge during the day, and outside the CC hours, there is also through traffic, even if it’s only going from one part of inner London to another. And by no means all of the private cars that are there will be driven by well-off people. Those who work anti-social hours (whether in hospitality or, say, health) are more likely to use cars even though they are amongst the lowest paid.

   You also cannot compare Euro 4 petrol with Euro 6 diesel as they are on quite different scales. The 4 and the 6 actually are more to do with the fact that the Euro standard for Diesel engines started earlier and has had more development than that for petrol engines.

4. I’d be really surprised if many of the poorest workers drove to work, surely the vast majority will be using public transport, especially buses and night buses. There’s a very different atmosphere on early morning night buses coming into London than on those going out…

   My point was that Diesel vehicles have been targeted with the ULEZ far more than petrol ones due to the NOx issues, something which hits van drivers far more due to the lack of petrol alternatives. Until very recently ALL vans were diesel.

   Euro 6 for diesels came in around 2014/15, so a small trader with a 6 year old Transit will have to pay the charge. By contrast Euro 4 for petrol came in around 2005, indeed my 2002 car passes this, you’d have to be driving an ancient petrol car to pay the charge.

5. Bristol has announced plans to ban Diesel vehicles by 2021, Euro 6 commercial vans, GV, PSV and cabs are exempt.

   https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-clean-air-zone-diesel-3481117

6. Some poorer people who live centrally will drive, if they need to for practical reasons, not so much as a choice:

   1/ Tradespeople who need to move tools and supplies to work locations in estate cars/vans of various sizes
   2/ People who have jobs which require unsocial hours, and the distance to the job is a long way cross zone or from inside zone to out of zone
   3/ And cases where travel time/cost makes public transport less good option, especially from inside zone to longer distances out of zone. Not quite the same as commuting from out of zone to in zone because people will generally choose to live somewhere with access to a station, the reverse is more constrained, especially if you are settled in social housing and can’t easily move, and have to take jobs where you can find them, so greater pressure to drive.

7. @Andrew M

   Don’t be fooled by spin from the Mayor & TfL, while central London ULEZ is making a difference, but other legislation /changes are very big contributors.

   (as an aside who are the 23% that can afford to pay the ULEZ charge? )

   Air quality in the UK has been steadily improving for years ;
   https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/778483/Emissions_of_air_pollutants_1990_2017.pdf

   There is a lot that still needs to be done, but UK has been moving in the right direction for a long time – although one might not thinks so from the headlines!

   Also note that much of PM2.5 pollution comes from outside London, it’s mentioned in the report and there’s more background here; https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/pollution-and-air-quality/health-and-exposure-pollution

   Which includes the clear statement “in 2010 nearly half the health effects of long term exposure to air pollution were caused by pollution from outside London, as well as 75% of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with PM2.5”

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