Russian Railways has seen a significant decline in volumes, which coincides with China’s strategic efforts to develop alternative trade routes into Europe. At the same time, there’s growing recognition that Central Asia itself could emerge as a major destination, independent of Russia’s traditional role in the region.
In 2024, reports indicated that Russian Railways, the state-owned operator, faced a 25% reduction in Far Eastern import volumes. This downturn has been attributed to several factors, most notably the severe drop in the availability of locomotives and the country’s struggle to maintain its rail network with a flagrant lack of spare parts due to Western sanctions and increasing demand for reinforcements in the war effort. These challenges have forced Russia to scale back its rail capabilities, making its routes less competitive.
As Russia’s status as an international pariah grows, particularly due to its invasion of Ukraine, Central Asia is becoming a critical hub for both China and other countries seeking alternatives to Russian-dominated trade routes. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR), is a global infrastructure development strategy initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. The initiative is aimed at enhancing trade and investment connectivity between countries, primarily in Asia, Europe, and Africa. The name « Belt and Road » refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, reflecting the historical trade routes that connected China to the Mediterranean and other parts of the world.
Unfortunately, the alternative rail routes can also be subject to geopolitical issues. The article mentions Kazakstan avoidance, but the map shows one routing through Iran, which would also be problematic.
And some of the routes depend on train ferries or transshipment of multi-modal containers to cross significant bodies of water; likely any route that avoided the worst geopolitical issues would need to be multi-modal based with multiple significant sea legs, including across Mediterranean to join the rail network in Southern Europe.