This paper investigates the reversibility of the effects of transport infrastructure investments, based on a programme that removed much of the rail network in Britain during the mid-20th century. We find that a 10% loss in rail access between 1950 and 1980 caused a persistent 3% decline in local population relative to unaffected areas, implying that the 1 in 5 places most exposed to the cuts saw 24 percentage points less population growth than the 1 in 5 places that were least exposed. The cuts reduced local jobs and shares of skilled workers and young people.
Transport infrastructure is durable, but its costs and benefits can shift over time. Consequently, decision-makers may need to remove or repurpose historical infrastructure investments. For example, the second half of the 20th century saw widespread reductions in railway infrastructure, while more recently, cities are reallocating road space to walking or cycling or removing highways to create public spaces.1 Interestingly, we know relatively little about the economic impacts of dismantling a transport network, aside from the fact that it is not guaranteed to simply reverse the effects of its construction. This follows from existing research on the construction of transport infrastructure, which generally concludes that building such infrastructure induces path dependencies through its positive effects on agglomeration economies, durable housing and local infrastructure…
Hat tip to Mobility Matters for bringing this to our attention.