Crossrail Numbers Rise Again

Fairly recently the Office of Road and Rail (ORR) published its annual count of passenger numbers at National Rail stations. These figures seem to be often treated as a one-day wonder but detailed analysis throughout the year reveals many trends and gives us some idea of how the railways are recovering (or not) in a post-Covid world. An excellent more general analysis of this year’s figures, beyond what the ORR itself provides, is available in a Diamond Geezer post.

Despite the Elizabeth line being treated as a separate entity by TfL, Crossrail IS part of National Rail so figures for Crossrail stations are included in the analysis. For those who don’t follow the quarterly figures from ORR on quarterly passenger numbers by Train Operating Company (TOC), the numbers must appear to be mindblowing. In this data-heavy article we look at the data in detail and its implications for the future.

The Usual Caveats

Data and statistics always have to be treated with caution. We deliberately ignore the Covid years but we do look at pre-covid figures. The Elizabeth line opened in May 2022 but the figures are annual figures from April until March the following year. So, the first year’s data really only represents around ten and a half months of the Elizabeth line being open. That said, 31 of the 41 stations were already served by a TfL Rail service prior to the opening of the Elizabeth line so it is not as if they were advancing from a standing start.

There is always controversy over how the statistics are generated with claims of double-counting and other misleading errors. There are numerous different scenarios to be taken into account and anyone concerned can read the associated Quantity and Methodology report. As a broad guide, the actual numbers are not too important it is the trends and comparative numbers that are significant. So long as the methodology does not change too much from year to year the figures are in some way meaningful.

The Headlines

The headlines, repeated and consolidated from last year, is that the Elizabeth line has changed the dynamics of the busiest stations in Britain. It used to be largely the London termini that dominated the top of the list. Now it is the central London Elizabeth line stations – and one not so central station. Some of these stations are also termini (Paddington and Liverpool Street) and the main line and Crossrail stations are treated as one station. Stratford clearly has significant National Rail usage on Greater Anglia trains. Despite that, the fact is that these stations wouldn’t be so high in the list if Crossrail hadn’t been built.

So, of the ten busiest National Rail stations, five are consecutive stations on Crossrail with newly built underground platforms for the Elizabeth line. A sixth is Stratford, an existing station in just about all respects. In fairness it has to be pointed out that Stratford, post-Olympics, is a booming area anyway so it would not be possible to explain its dominant position in the table entirely on the basis of Crossrail.

Possibly of more interest still is Whitechapel which only missed the top ten by two positions and less than a million passengers. We will look at Whitechapel in more detail later.

The Branches

Crossrail has had a very obvious impact in central London which readers hardly need to be told about. Simply because it doesn’t hit the headlines, it could be more interesting to look at the figures on the various branches and the significant rise in numbers outside central London in contrast to the rest of the country where figures are generally flat and haven’t yet returned to pre-Covid levels.

As we have done before, we find it convenient to break down the Elizabeth line outside central London in four groups with common traits. These are:

• The Shenfield Branch
• The Abbey Wood Branch
• The West London Suburbs (Acton Main Line to West Drayton)
• The Airport Stations
• Stations outside London on the branch to Reading

Brentwood, like Shenfield is outside Greater London. It has taken longer than the Greater London stations along this branch to recover its numbers from Covid but it has finally seen a significant increase in passenger numbers over its pre-Covid figures. As it is only served by Crossrail, it is a notable Elizabeth line example outside the London boundary that has bucked the national post-Covid decline.

Harold Wood, just inside Greater London, recovered its passenger numbers slightly earlier than Brentwood and now comfortably exceeds its pre-Covid passenger numbers. Gidea Park has also comfortably exceeded its pre-Covid passenger numbers but is now the least used station on the Shenfield branch with 3.6 million passengers annually – which says a lot about how busy the other stations are.

Romford is a busy station and has been so for the past century. It is the busiest one east of Stratford on the branch and has seen a notable rise in numbers from a high base. It is partly for this reasons that all scheduled trains on this branch are timetabled to travel east as least as far as Romford. Some would terminate there but there is no space to do so, therefore trains that don’t go all the way to Shenfield terminate at the next station along (Gidea Park).

Until fairly recently some peak hour trains missed some stops between Romford and London – partly to give Romford a better service. With the superior acceleration of Crossrail trains, the benefits of missing out individual stations are more limited. Now all Crossrail trains stop at every station on the Shenfield branch meaning that, in some respects, the service between Romford and London has deteriorated.

Greater Anglia trains also call at Romford in outside peak hours meaning there is a half-hourly fast service fast to Stratford outside peak hours. These leave from the platforms on the main lines but there is no spare capacity during the at peak hours to enable these trains to call at Romford. These trains (and the Romford-Upminster ones, recently renamed the Liberty line) mean that not all passengers who use Romford station are Crossrail passengers.

Rather than look to Crossrail to cater for the demand at Romford, it really seems that Romford deserves an all day fast service to Stratford and this would have to be provided by Greater Anglia services. However, even assuming a solution to provide capacity for trains on the main lines to stop in peak hours were found, there probably wouldn’t be any spare capacity on the trains themselves. Alternatively, the solution of running extra trains on the fast lines in peak hours wouldn’t work because there is a capacity restriction on the approaches to Liverpool Street station in the Bow area.

Chadwell Heath, Goodmayes and Seven Kings have also shown significant rises in passenger numbers in the past year but not as spectacular as some stations.

Ilford has seen an even more significant rise in passenger numbers from a high base. This is the second busiest station on the branch. But even Ilford’s rise in numbers is not as dramatic as at some stations.

Manor Park and Forest Gate continue the trend of a significant rise in passenger numbers in the past year.

Maryland, the next station towards London, shows really dramatic growth. In one sense it is the star performer but with relatively low passenger numbers (by Crossrail standards) it tends not to be singled out. This used to be the least-used station on the branch – not any more. As with its west London counterpart, this inner London station benefits hugely from Crossrail and it shows. Furthermore, it is showing signs of becoming a desirable place to live especially for the young people at whom the property market in this area seems to be aimed.

Stratford, as already mentioned has seen dramatic growth in the past decade and it would be hard to say how much is due to Crossrail. It would probably be true to say that the growth would have been throttled if Crossrail hadn’t been built to provide the necessary increase in capacity.

The Abbey Wood Branch

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% increase 23->24
Canary Wharf	–	9.925m	14.787m	49
Custom House	–	5.272m	9.238m	75.2
Woolwich	–	8.34m	13.237m	58.7
Abbey Wood	3.825m	7.119m	10.655m	49.8

Fairly unsurprisingly, Abbey Wood station has seen a dramatic increase in passenger numbers with the opening of the Crossrail platforms. Interchange passengers don’t count towards entrances and exits. Last year’s increase was impressive. Development is starting to appear in earnest in the vicinity of the station.

Woolwich station was not in the original Crossrail plans and was only added due to strong lobbying by Greenwich council. The funding issue meant that an underground station with only a single exit was built so having over 13 million people enter or exit the station each year is becoming a bit of a problem. It certainly shows that the lobbying done by Greenwich during the passage of the Crossrail bill through parliament was justified.

Custom House, the station for ExCeL, is another strong performer on this four-station branch line. Although it ‘only’ has just over 9 million entries and exits in the past year it needs to be borne in mind that serving an exhibition centre means it is more about handling a large number of passengers in a short time and this is something which the station is capable of doing. Any passengers changing here for the Beckton branch of the DLR would count as an entry or exit for Custom House Crossrail station. This not only helps swell the entry and exit figures, it also helps in providing a useful year-round base level of passengers.

Whilst Canary Wharf is certainly a busy station having nearly 14.8 million passengers, many people have expressed surprise this is not higher given that having a station at Canary Wharf was the entire impetus for having this branch.

The West London Suburbs

The takeover of the majority of suburban services, initially by TfL Rail and subsequently by Crossrail, has provided quite a renaissance to this group of stations. This was undoubtedly also helped by the introduction of electric services replacing the former diesel trains prior to Crossrail’s arrival. A dormant potential has been unleashed with improvements now constrained by the lack of train paths rather than any unwillingness to provide a decent service.

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% increase 23->24
Acton Main Line	0.351m	1.1m	2.235m	103.1
Ealing Broadway	6.91m	8.237m	13.7m	66.3
West Ealing	1.182m	1.261m	2.256m	78.9
Hanwell	0.46m	0.922m	1.468m	59.2
Southall	3.475m	4.428m	6.969m	57.4
Hayes & Harlington	4.405m	5.446m	7.765m	42.6
West Drayton	2.38m	2.262m	3.225m	42.6

Acton Main Line, Hanwell and West Ealing have traditionally been the ‘quiet’ stations.

Acton Main Line is now a popular station though its stellar growth does not nearly match its eastern counterpart of Maryland when looking at raw passenger numbers. A large construction site nearby probably helps. Hanwell, a heritage station that has been sympathetically restored, now with 4 trains an hour. Maybe not ‘build it and they will come’ but certainly ‘improve it and they will come’.

West Ealing notionally has six trains an hour but their distribution means that this station effectively has a 4tph service. The modern station was clearly rebuilt in the expectation that many additional passenger numbers would be using the station and the decision to do so was clearly justified.

These three stations are getting to the point where a 6tph service is becoming justified, at least in peak hours, and all the indications are that TfL would like to see that happen. However, the service on the western arm of Crossrail is always going to be a balancing act to best satisfy competing demands so a better service may not happen. Furthermore, when it comes to investment to cater for current demand, as things currently are, the Shenfield branch will produce a better financial case for increased expenditure.

If the previous three stations are the ‘quiet’ stations, Ealing Broadway, Southall and Hayes & Harlington are the ‘busy’ stations that are experiencing massive growth. Like the Shenfield branch, replacement of nearby industrial areas with multiple high-rise tower blocks may be fuelling the growth.

Largely on its own is West Drayton. It is busier than the ‘quiet’ stations but not by that much. However, it is the starting point for longer journeys into London and there is no real alternative nearby. TfL appears to be keen to increase its peak service beyond its current 6tph.

The Airport Stations

Something that may be quite hard to believe is that really the Heathrow Crossrail stations are not that busy. People assume the airport is a major rail traffic generator but statistics suggest otherwise. The perception may be partly due to the unmissable nature of passengers with heavy luggage often appearing confused in their new surroundings.

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% increase 23->24
Terminal 4	1.752m	0.694m	1.087m	56.6
Terminal 5	1.461m	2.62m	4.106m	56.7
Terminals 2 & 3	3.99m	4.393m	6.884m	56.7

It also needs to be borne in mind that around half of passengers at Heathrow that arrive or depart by rail choose to use the Piccadilly line and not Crossrail or Heathrow Express

Heathrow Terminal 4 rail station, exclusively served by Crossrail, is the least busy Crossrail station in the Greater London area. Terminal 5 is better but, currently, it can’t even match Maryland for passenger numbers. And that is counting both Crossrail and Heathrow Express trains.

The main rail station at Heathrow, Terminals 2 & 3, manages better than the other two stations but, even so, it does not generate as much passenger usage as Hayes & Harlington, the next station towards London.

Of course, station counts at Heathrow are distorted by Heathrow Express but, additionally, free journeys between terminals are almost certainly not counted. Heathrow Express has marginally over 4 million passengers per year and this annual total is slowly falling. Numbers are significant but Crossrail is already the primary heavy rail mover at Heathrow.

Beyond the London Boundary towards Reading

Until now, the story has been one of growth beyond expectations – particularly given the long-term impact of Covid, work from home and reliability problems on parts of Crossrail. Westward beyond West Drayton it is a different story. Here growth is only marginal and generally hovering around the pre-Covid level despite, arguably, a far better service. There is no entirely consistent pattern and every station tells its own story.

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% increase 23->24
Iver	0.232m	0.265m	0.321m	21.1
Langley	0.908m	0.769m	1.042m	35.5
Slough	5.546m	4.528m	5.384m	18.9
Burnham	1.408m	1.258m	1.566m	24.5
Taplow	0.321m	0.3m	0.46m	53.3
Maidenhead	4.675m	3.24m	4.392m	35.6
Twyford	1.528m	1.082m	1.564m	44.5
Reading	17.081m	12.401m	13.49m	8.8

Iver is an interesting case. Easily the least busy station on Crossrail, this station, just outside London, has finally started to show a rise in passenger numbers consistent with the rest of Crossrail. It is a station outside London that is showing London levels of growth – albeit from a very low baseline. Iver is one of two stations on Crossrail with only a half-hourly service (peak and off-peak) so it is hardly going to be the ‘go to’ station for people from beyond its immediately surrounding area – which is actually Richings Park not Iver.

Langley, effectively a suburb of Slough, has passenger numbers that are only marginally above its pre-Covid level.

Passenger numbers at Slough are still down on pre-Covid figures. The portion using Crossrail will have risen because nowadays there is no GWR peak period service in the peak direction between Slough and Paddington. Mark Hopwood, General Manager of GWR, puts this down to the train paths not being available. This may well be true but one suspects that GWR are not too upset by this. When trains are busy, they would rather have longer distance ‘bums on seats’. Whether Slough passengers are just as happy about this is another matter and this may have affected station usage.

Burnham station, has passenger number slightly higher than pre-Covid.

Taplow has improved passenger figures that are hard to explain. The service is only half-hourly and, like Iver, hardly the obvious station to use if not from the immediate area.

Maidenhead has not recovered from its pre-Covid figures despite a half-hourly fast GWR service to Paddington (non-stop in the morning peak, calling at Slough at other times).

Passenger numbers at Twyford have risen over 50% in the past year. Statistics do not disclose whether these are passengers to and from Reading or London or elsewhere (including the Henley-On-Thames branch). GWR offers a superior, faster service to London Paddington every half-hour so passengers preferring Crossrail will be limited.

Rather like Shenfield, not much can be read into passenger counts at Reading as far as Crossrail usage goes.

An Alternative Way of looking at the Reading Branch Figures

Whilst an initial look at figures suggests that Crossrail has made little impact on stations between Iver and Reading, a comparison with similar stations between Reading and Didcot Parkway suggests a very different story. Despite having an excellent half-hourly fast service to London, these stations have not recovered from pre-Covid numbers are much more in line with national passenger rail statistics (excluding Crossrail). The obvious conclusion to draw is that, if it hadn’t been for Crossrail, numbers at most stations between Iver and Reading would have been significantly down rather than, on average, holding their own.

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% change 20->24
Tilehurst	0.572m	0.32m	0.357m	–37.6
Pangbourne	0.482m	0.321m	0.355m	–26.3
Goring & Streatley	0.437m	0.288m	0.322m	–26.3
Cholsey	0.284m	0.212m	0.241m	–15.1

Honourable Non-Crossrail Mentions

Diamond Geezer has compiled a list of the twenty stations with the largest passenger increases. The two stations with the largest increases are Meridian Water and Barking Riverside. It makes sense to ignore these as outliers. They are basically stations built in the middle of nowhere and are aspiring to be in the middle of somewhere for which a tenuous start has been made.

Of the remaining eighteen stations, sixteen are Crossrail stations. The other two are South Greenford and Castle Bar Park on the half-hourly Greenford – West Ealing shuttle service (Mondays-Saturdays only). Both stations could be regarded as Crossrail feeder stations. The only other intermediate station on the line is Drayton Green which is so close to West Ealing it understandable if few people use it. The journey time on the train is two minutes but this is made at slow speed on a tight bend and it would often be quicker to walk or take the local bus.

Station	2019-2020	2022-2023	2023-2024	% increase 23->24
South Greenford	28,382	20,706	38,330	85.1
Castle Bar Park	81,088	66,670	101,564	52.3
Drayton Green	31,610	16,082	20,198	25.6

The Future – Whitechapel to Reach the Top Ten

Whilst next year’s figures are generally hard to predict other than to say numbers will almost certainly rise, there is one prediction that seems highly likely that will really reinforce Crossrail’s position as the dominant player in the top ten positions of National Rail station usage.

In 2022-23 Crossrail leapt onto the scene taking five of the top ten places for busy stations. Actually, it managed five out of the top nine. This year it managed six out of the top ten. This was not a surprise as Bond Street station opened after the initial opening of the Elizabeth line and it was clear that by this year Bond Street would be in the top ten.

What is a little surprising is how busy Whitechapel station is becoming especially given it is outside the central London area (at least the central London business district) and is not in an area of recognised regeneration. Whitechapel’s annual passenger usage figures are now within a million of Euston’s and are rising fast. In fact they are heading towards at least triple the pre-Covid figure. Furthermore, it is rising at a far higher rate than Euston which currently occupies the tenth position.

It seems highly likely that next year’s passenger statistics will show a run of seven adjacent Crossrail stations from Paddington to Stratford lying in the top ten stations for passenger usage. This is unlikely to increase further this decade but Old Oak Common may one day make the list which could mean that eight out of nine consecutive stations on Crossrail (Acton Main Line rather spoiling the sequence) are in eight out of the top ten stations by passenger usage. More likely though is that Euston will be readmitted to this list unless HS2 passengers are not regarded as passengers on National Rail in which case transferring passengers will be treated as entries and exits.

The Future – More trains, Longer trains?

One year’s passenger statistics do not reliably indicate a future trend just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer. It certainly looks as if the extra trains due to be in service on Crossrail by 2026 will be needed. As we have stated before, after that it becomes limited as to what you can do with extra trains. If further enhancement becomes necessary then longer trains may be the answer even if that option turns out to be an expensive one. Whether this is deemed desirable and whether the money can be found for this is another matter.

As we have pointed out before, these statistics do not distinguish between peak period and off-peak periods but the general impression when using Crossrail is that it could do with more off-peak trains and a 10tph service off-peak on the Abbey Wood and Shenfield branches (giving 20tph in the central section) seems to be something that these statistics suggest will inevitably come one day.

Whatever let downs we have had in the past with budget overruns and opening delays as well as current issues with reliability on parts of the Crossrail network, the numbers suggest that the travelling public vote Crossrail a huge success – even if there is room for improvement.