When discussing Crossrail, commenters have often speculated on the ultimate demise of Heathrow Express – the private train operating company that runs a non-stop express service between Paddington and Heathrow. This speculation is generally predicated on the belief that once the Elizabeth line runs to Heathrow no-one in their right mind would bother with Heathrow Express. Such speculation was generally that – merely speculation – but now facts and whispers are beginning to emerge, suggesting that maybe Heathrow Express won’t exist by the end of the decade. Here we provide some of the reasons that cast doubt upon the continuing existence of Heathrow Express.
The Crossrail Challenger
It was always realised that Crossrail was going to be a challenge for Heathrow Express. The obvious challenge was having a rival rail service between Heathrow and Paddington whereas previously the main public-transport-based rival was the much slower (but also much cheaper) Piccadilly line. A further significant difference is that Heathrow Express was planned and built after the Piccadilly line, so Piccadilly line use was factored into the original Heathrow Express business plan. Whilst talk of Crossrail had been around for decades, it was only in the 21st century that it was starting to look like it would become a reality.
It is clear (most notably by a recent Telegraph article that is unfortunately behind a paywall) that many including ordinary travellers are beginning to question either how or if Heathrow Express can survive with competition from a cheaper alternative that takes you to the heart of central London.
Initially, it would have been hard to see how the original Crossrail plans were that much of a threat to Heathrow Express. Crossrail to Heathrow would be limited to 4tph, all of which would terminate at Terminal 4 which is considerably less busy than Terminal 5. Given that there is only a single track between Terminals 2 & 3 station and Terminal 4 station, a 15-minute interval was the maximum that could be realistically achieved.
These four Crossrail trains per hour between Heathrow and Paddington would, as originally proposed, also call at Terminals 2&3 but, in addition, had to also serve significant intermediate stations (Hayes & Harlington, Southall, and Ealing Broadway), a service at West Ealing for completeness and provide the only service to Hanwell and Acton Main Line stations. It was apparent that the Crossrail service serving Heathrow would take considerably longer than the Heathrow Express alternative.
Additional comfort for Heathrow Express could be obtained from the fact that prior to Crossrail there was already a stopping service called Heathrow Connect between Paddington and Heathrow. It wasn’t particularly busy and often only consisted of 5-car trains. Crossrail would be taking over this service. Although the frequency would be doubled, Heathrow Express could cling onto the belief that replacing Heathrow Connect with Crossrail trains to and from central London would make little difference.
Problems begin for Heathrow Express
Things took a turn for the worse for Heathrow Express when plans for HS2 came along. The building of HS2 required Heathrow Express to vacate its storage and maintenance depot at Old Oak Common. They lost their conveniently located base for their service. Things initially didn’t seem too bad because derelict railway land had been identified at Langley as a suitable replacement. Unfortunately, the local council had plans to use that for housing and they were determined to resist any attempt to build a railway depot there.
Eventually Heathrow Express decided to replace their original Class 332 rolling stock early after about 22 years of life and replace it with almost new class 387 trains suitably modified for airport work. At the same time, they chose to contract the maintenance out to GWR who had spare capacity at their Reading Train Depot. Reading was hardly an ideal location because of the amount of dead mileage that would be needed but it was probably the best option available. The modified Class 387 trains started to be introduced on Heathrow Express from December 2020.
It seems that the government had exerted considerable pressure or encouragement to ensure the plan to sub-contract the train provision to GWR and ensure a long-term contract (around 10 years) was signed. In what was possibly a rare example of good forward planning, maybe the Department of Transport wanted to ensure the survival of Heathrow Express in the short term, but was anxious that it could be dismantled without difficulty should it be desirable for it to cease operations. As a result, today Heathrow Express employs very few staff. The drivers are actually GWR drivers and one suspects that the pushy sales staff are largely on short term contracts where pay is strongly related to ticket sales achieved.
An attempt to reinvent
At around the time when Heathrow Express arranged to lease its new trains, the company made an announcement concerning its future plans. In a positive-sounding proposal they announced their intention of bidding to run the future service in the proposed tunnels providing western access to Heathrow. This would have created a semi-fast service from Paddington to Reading via Heathrow and be specifically intended for passengers to and from Heathrow Airport. Whilst intended as a positive statement, it was viewed by many in the rail industry as a sign of desperation.
Things had only got worse for Heathrow Express. In particular, an attempt by their parent company to increase access charges for Crossrail using the rail tunnels to Heathrow (owned by the airport) was turned down by the Office for Road and Rail (ORR) regulator. What was regarded by many in the rail industry as a cheeky attempt to increase revenue with no effort expended appeared to be something that Heathrow Airport Holdings Ltd really believed would be approved.
At the time, their main regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), tended to be much more sympathetic to the needs of the airline industry so maybe Heathrow Airport thought that the rail regulator would be similarly accommodating. Heathrow Express may have previously thought they were in a safe financial situation but by now there was no doubt they were vulnerable.
Crossrail to Terminal 5
Then, in mid-2017, shortly before Crossrail was originally due to open, Howard Smith (Chief Operating Officer for the Elizabeth line) managed to arrange for Crossrail to serve Terminal 5 with two trains per hour (tph), meaning there would be an additional 2tph to Terminal 2&3 and Terminal 5 would be added to the Crossrail map. This was a real pull-a-rabbit-out-of-a-hat moment, although the hints were there but not spotted as Howard Smith, in talks already given, had pointed out the absurdity of Crossrail not serving Terminal 5.
Hopes dashed
Worse was to come for Heathrow Express when the proposed western approach to Heathrow seemed to get forgotten once Covid took hold. It seemed that current Heathrow Express service was under threat from more significant competition from the Elizabeth line and their long-term plan to find an alternative market was just not going to happen.
Hope of a rosy future for Heathrow Express now seemed to depend on a significant post-Covid recovery in airline travel and a reluctance for passengers to switch to the Elizabeth line.
Heathrow Express were fortunate that airline passenger recovery was unexpectedly rapid once the worst of Covid was over. Even better for them, British Airways were prioritising using Heathrow rather than Gatwick so that, although passenger numbers overall may be down, passenger numbers at Heathrow had almost totally recovered.
Any hope that Heathrow Express would get lucky twice with a reluctance of passengers to use the Elizabeth line instead of Heathrow Express post-Covid were quickly dashed with the opening of the central section of the Elizabeth line in May 2022. Anecdotally, the hordes of passengers with luggage alighting onto the Crossrail platforms at Paddington main line station and then snaking their way to Paddington Crossrail station entrance showed that there was most definitely significant demand for Elizabeth line services from Heathrow to Central London in preference to Heathrow Express. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that many of the Elizabeth line passengers would have otherwise used Heathrow Express but it is hard not to come to this conclusion.
Now that through Elizabeth line services operate to Central London from Heathrow the demand is even more noticeable with Heathrow Express appearing to be very lightly loaded. From casual observation, it also appears to be the case that far more people use Heathrow Express in the Heathrow to Paddington direction than do so in the other direction. Many would say that is because first time travellers from abroad are not aware of the alternative but once in London they have got wise to the Elizabeth line and don’t bother with Heathrow Express for the return journey.
Despite poor, or at least inconsistent, loadings, it has to be taken into account that, in general, Heathrow Express fares are very expensive so it would not require a high load factor to be profitable – or at least have fares exceeding operating costs (which isn’t quite the same thing).
Definitive statistics are hard to come by. We know that Elizabeth line receipts are significantly higher than post-Covid predictions and there is a lot of feedback to suggest loadings on Heathrow services are quite high. More difficult is to determine how Heathrow Express is faring as they are a private company and, obviously, their passenger loadings and fare revenue is a commercially sensitive secret.
Bear in mind this popularity is present even with the temporary delay of up to seven minutes when Elizabeth line trains have to wait on their inward journey to Paddington in order to match up with the previously existing timetable in the central operating section. This will disappear in May 2023 when the ‘final’ Crossrail timetable will be implemented.
In fact, the May 2023 timetable leads to an even faster service as Heathrow trains from Terminal 5 will only call at Heathrow Terminals 2&3, Hayes & Harlington, West Ealing, and Ealing Broadway before arriving at Paddington. It has been possible to omit the busy Southall station as well as the lesser-used Hanwell and Acton Main Line stations. This means that the Elizabeth line would take 33 minutes from Terminal 5 to Paddington (Low Level) as opposed to 20 minutes to the main station by Heathrow Express.
On the face of it, if wishing to continue one’s journey on the Elizabeth line there is a noticeable speed advantage in taking Heathrow Express to Paddington and changing there. But another factor is that it can take a long time to exit through the ticket barriers in the main line station. This is because there are only five gates dedicated to Heathrow Express services. With two being reserved for boarding passengers that leaves just three gates (admittedly wide ones) for all the passengers with their luggage to exit the platform. On top of that, most of them are unfamiliar with the gates so take much longer than a seasoned commuter or even an occasional rail traveller in Great Britain. It is not an exaggeration to say that if you are at the wrong end the train it could take up to nine minutes to leave the platform.
Whilst we would argue that the long-term prognosis for Heathrow Express is not promising, the short-term outlook seems to be one of continuing much as today. Our belief is that the crunch will start to come in 2028 and life will be difficult for Heathrow Express from around the early 2030s if they are still in business then.
Crossrail to 4tph to Terminal 5?
Before 2028, a possible further problem for Heathrow Express may well manifest itself in the mid-2020s. When it was announced that Crossrail would serve Terminal 5 with two trains per hour, it was also announced that the DfT, TfL, and Network Rail were also “conducting a joint feasibility study into increasing the frequency of the Elizabeth line service to 8 trains an hour by the mid-2020s”. Note the apparent absence of any input from Heathrow Express in this decision making.
Should TfL be able to run 4tph to Terminal 5 as well as 4tph to Terminal 4 then it would appear that the Elizabeth line would be in a very strong position to tempt passengers away from Heathrow Express. Terminal 4 station is not served by Heathrow Express, from Terminal 5 there would be 4tph offered by both services and at the main Heathrow station, Terminals 2&3, the Elizabeth line will offer 8tph while Heathrow Express will only offer 4tph.
What could kill Heathrow Express
There are really only two possible reasons why Heathrow Express will not run a service. The first reason is if they do not have the track access necessary to run the service. The second reason is just as fundamental: Heathrow Express will exist as long as it can make a profit. Of course, a true sustained profit must take in account the eventual need to periodically refurbish and ultimately replace rolling stock. If provision is not made for this then an apparent profit may well be illusory in the long term.
As many have pointed out, the day may well come when Heathrow Airport Holdings Ltd realise that they would be better off not running Heathrow Express so that TfL can use the slots and Heathrow gets increased revenue from track access charges for almost no effort.
Heathrow Express has guaranteed track access on the Great Western Main Line to Paddington until 2028. In that year Network Rail will carry out a reassessment of the Great Western Main Line capacity use.
Heathrow Express also has its long-term contract with GWR to maintain their rolling stock until 2028 when it would be up for renegotiation. This makes 2028 a good time to exit the rail market if a satisfactory renewal could not be made. It also gives an opportunity to negotiate a short-term contract if it feels that its long-term future is in doubt.
You can be fairly sure that in any reassessment of track access GWR will argue that Heathrow Express on the main lines (rather than the relief lines) between Airport Junction and Paddington is not a good use of the limited capacity. Therefore, replacing Heathrow Express services with enhanced Elizabeth line services on the relief lines would potentially benefit millions of GWR rail travellers, as their service across the entire GWR region will be more reliable and can be planned without having to take Heathrow Express trains into account.
Possibly of more interest to GWR is being able to use platforms 6 & 7 at Paddington which are currently dedicated to Heathrow Express. It is probably availability of platforms at Paddington rather than capacity on the main (fast) lines that limits the number of trains to Paddington that GWR can run.
A further factor that may emerge is that if traffic returns GWR may wish to reassign their Intercity Express Trains for the longer routes with fewer intermediate stops and cover the intermediate distance routes with additional Class 387 trains – that would become available should Heathrow Express decide not to continue operating.
TfL would probably argue that Heathrow is best served by one company running as frequent a service as possible and it would be impractical to run a non-stop service between Paddington and Heathrow on the relief lines. Already there are rumours that TfL is thinking in terms of at least 10tph to Heathrow if Heathrow Express no longer runs with at least the current level of service to Maidenhead and Reading continuing.
The possible Old Oak Common threat
If Heathrow Express survives beyond 2028 then the next challenge will be the opening of Old Oak Common station on HS2. When this station is opened it is intended that all trains to and from Paddington will stop there. Quite what the consequences of this would be is unclear.
From a logical, rational point of view opening of Old Oak Common station could benefit Heathrow Express. First, there would be a potential new market of HS2 travellers to and from the Birmingham and the north of England. Secondly, logic suggests it would be better for Heathrow Express customers who want to continue their journey on the Elizabeth line.
All Elizabeth line services that currently terminate at Paddington Low Level will be extended to Old Oak Common. This would give an Elizabeth line service of 24tph in the peak period (possibly more) and probably by then 20tph off-peak at that station. Early modelling shows that interchange time between Heathrow Express would be short, unlike at Paddington currently, and for travellers from Heathrow there would be the advantage of boarding Elizabeth line trains at the terminus and almost certainly getting a seat.
The problem with the logical reasoning is that the perception may be otherwise. Passengers who want to continue by taxi at Paddington will have a slower journey than before even though the journey time difference between Crossrail and Heathrow will probably be the same. Nevertheless, the service will lose some of its attraction.
The journey will be about three miles shorter between Old Oak Common and Heathrow compared to Paddington and Heathrow so Heathrow Express will be seen as less good value for money (assuming the same fare is charged as to or from Paddington). Heathrow Express will almost certainly have to pay to stop at Old Oak Common even though they will have no choice in doing so.
There is quite probably a disadvantage to Heathrow Express in that it is likely that a Crossrail train from Old Oak Common station could reach Paddington Low Level station faster than a Heathrow Express train could reach Paddington High Level station. This would be due to the Crossrail train being run fully automatically at optimal speed whereas the Heathrow Express train would probably have to travel very slowly to traverse the station throat at Paddington.
It is hard to predict when Old Oak Common station will open. Modern Railways (March 2023) suggests that HS2 will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common “towards the end of its current opening window of 2029-2033 but the link to London at Euston maybe as much as five years behind it”. The opening to Euston is largely irrelevant to us as it is unlikely local journeys between Old Oak Common and Euston will be permitted. What is more pertinent is how HS2 travellers continue their journey to London. It is hard to see many choosing Heathrow Express even if that option were available – which it probably won’t be.
More Elizabeth line stock needed
A further complication with the idea that Heathrow Express could be no more is that it could potentially require more Elizabeth line stock to replace the lost services. Given the complexity of the signalling it needs to interface with, one would have thought that only Bombardier (who provided the original stock) and Siemens (who provided the critical signalling in the central section) would be willing to tender although things turn out to be more complicated than that with manufacturers sub-contracting the signalling interface.
A further problem could be that the number of trains involved mean a high price per trainset. Precedent here has been set by the Jubilee and Northern line Additional Trains (JNAT) where a small order was believed to have led to a ridiculously high quote when the cost per train was considered. If TfL were to place a future order in then it would make sense to maximise the order. For example, if the demand were there, TfL could maximise Elizabeth line services based on the signalling capacity that would be available towards the end of the decade.
An alternative, slightly less satisfactory, solution would be to adjust the current service pattern to free up extra trains. This would only be necessary in the peak period when utilisation is at a maximum. Options are limited but there are possibilities on the line out to Shenfield. Not every train needs to go out as far as Shenfield and the service could be reduced east of Gidea Park where some trains could terminate. Note that it is not necessary for the few Gidea Park – Liverpool St (main line) trains that run in the peak (now and continuing in the new May 2023 timetable) to be composed of Crossrail Class 345 stock. TfL could even run non-Crossrail stock trains between Liverpool Street and Shenfield in the peaks and, at the same time, terminate many Crossrail Class 345 trains at Gidea Park where auto-reverse could be implemented in the siding.
The future can never be certain but it seems likely that after the ‘final’ May 2023 timetable, the Elizabeth line will continue improve and probably enhance the service provided to Heathrow Airport travellers. Whether Heathrow Express will also provide a service is hard to say for sure but we think not.
Many thanks to the LR team, especially ngh, for their contributions and insights.
An original attraction for Heathrow Express passengers from Paddington was the provision of airline check-in desks on The Lawn. Problems with security and terrorism led to its demise. However, being able to dispose of your luggage was a major attraction. When travelling with my family being able to get off the train at Heathrow unencumbered and go straight to security was a great benefit. Although today you need to take your luggage all the way to the airport the relative ease of using the Elizabeth Line from such a wide variety of connecting points throughout Central London and beyond means that the time and inconvenience of needing to trans-ship at Paddington increasingly outweighs the higher speed that Heathrow Express offers.
Pricing, as addressed in the article, does not help against the increased connectivity offered by Heathrow Express’ rival. In the hope of attracting families they have always had very low fares for children. I recall an example of the skewing of fares meaning that when my wife, and two other teachers, were leading a school group to Tokyo the fare for one teacher was greater than the fares of the 23 students they were leading combined.
I’ve used HEx once for an early(ish) flight. Having got the first train of the day from Wakefield into Kings Cross, the ~20min saving using HEx over Heathrow Connect was the difference between having some slack built into the schedule for stuff to go wrong and not. Plus, advance fares were at the time only a few pounds more than the Heathrow Connect fare. Totally worth it.
But now, and certainly after the timetable update, I would take the tube from Kings Cross to Farringdon (which are about 150% more frequent than to Paddington) and transfer to Lizzie. The few minutes lost after leaving Paddington being more than made up for by the savings getting to that point from Kings Cross.
I assume that so soon after the through services starting that there will be many websites for travellers across the world which haven’t been updated to mention EL services as an option… and of course a fair few people still rely on guidebooks which definitely won’t yet. It’s hard to imagine HEX surviving, the cost difference is so great and it’s a lot of money even for someone reasonably well off, it’s not like paying £5 rather than £2, it’s the cost of a fairly good meal. Slow but inexorable death is the only likely outcome
Living in Stratford, the Heathrow Express was a good option to get to Terminal 5 (7 minutes on HS1 from Stratford International to St Pancras, Circle/H&C to Paddington, 15 minutes HX to the airport) but in reality the 15 minute intervals between HS1 an HX trains could add half and hour of wasted time.
From this May the half-hourly direct Liz Line train from Stratford to Terminal 5 will not just reduce the price (from £6.30+£2.50+£25=£33.80 to £12.80), but reduce the inter-station walking, which is always a consideration when you’ve got luggage, even if only a carry-on.
I suspect that the reliability of the direct services compared with three services by different providers will cause less stress.
My last trip on HeX had no barriers, one of it’s selling points. Regular HeX users make up the bulk of the traffic and they know “£5.50 one-way Express Saver ticket purchased online or through our mobile app for future travel date”. Visitors are ‘sold’ the tourist fare and then a similar tax at all ‘attractions’.
Future rail extensions at Heathrow are not fixed and 15-20 years away beyond immediate business operations for HeX. However the loop line option for Reading does make more sense for HeX than alternatives looping a full EL or IEP. As a western terminus it could berth other cross-country type destinations. None of these are value for money compared to the interchange at OOC or a local EL stop. Providing access from the south avoiding central London would be a higher priority.
If HeX has no future competing with EL and Western Access is funded then it’s role could be serving Reading, Oxford, Bristol, Cardiff rather than just a one-stop shuttle. It may even be reincarnated for the new role.
As a Heathrow operation it does not ‘need to make a profit’ per se, HAH can justify carbon offsets and marketing, as pointed out even if profitable other investments may be better. A future operation would benefit from a successful retirement now rather than a flogged dead horse to overcome.
The Shenfield – Heathrow connection was in the original proposal and the promise has regularly been reaffirmed in pronouncements during the construction. 2 tph is just as useful for the more leisure based passenger compared to 4 tph for the Wharf business users.
EL fleet augmentation is anticipated for lengthening so why not for extension. In a 20 year window for HS2/Western there will likely be a program for EL system refits so a new stock order would share costs.
LivSt space is similar to Paddington so going back to a separate fleet for short term relief seems compromised for regular operational flexibility.
As far as I’m aware, the (contactless) ticketing price is based on using the HEx specific barriers at Paddington (at least if travelling to/from terminal 2/3). If the HEx goes to OOC, wouldn’t it need segregated platforms/ticket barriers there too? Otherwise there would be no way of distinguishing between whether passengers have arrived via the Elizabeth Line or Heathrow Express.
Good to see you writing again PoP.
Here’s an archived copy of the Telegraph article: http://archive.today/iMPvV
I used the Heathrow Express this month, Thameslink to Farringdon, Elizabeth line to Paddington, then Heathrow Express and I did think I was being daft. But coming home was I so glad I’d bought that return ticket! Arriving back at Heathrow on a Sunday evening: no Elizabeth line running, and then the extra speed meant I got to KGX in time to just catch a train home meaning I got home just before 10pm after 24 hours of travel. Worth every penny.
Most flights I take are from T5, and with the current 2tph on Crossrail, taking the tube from my office to Paddington and HEX from there can still be up to 20 minutes faster. If work’s paying, the cost is somewhat inconsequential, and the time saving worthwhile.
The real gamechanger will be when 4tph starts operating to T5 on Crossrail. There’s then very few scenarios where HEX would be faster.
I also imagine their business may also be further challenged if companies begin to amend their expense policies to prohibit use of Heathrow Express, with Crossrail being viewed as “good enough”.
An interesting comparison is with rail services to Vienna (Schwechat) Airport. Initially the competing rail services between the airport and the city centre were the normal S-Bahn and the City Express Train (CAT). Both of them ran to the Wien Mitte station, which despite its name is not right in the centre. The S-Bahn took over 20 minutes while the non-stop CAT took 16 minutes for about double the price, both half-hourly. Naturally promotion at the airport station massively featured the CAT, while the S-Bahn was hardly visible, with CAT-only ticket machines much closer to the airport terminal than the main rail ticket machines at the station.
Things have got more interesting since 2015, when Railjet express services were extended from Wien Haupbahnhof to the airport. These now run non-stop half-hourly from the airport to Wien Hbf for the same price as the S-Bahn (unlike high-speed trains in other countries, ordinary train tickets and passes can be used on Railjet), but at the same speed as the CAT. Also the frequency of S-Bahn trains to Mitte has increased. Whether Mitte or HBf is more convenient as a Vienna destination is vastly dependent on where your final destination in the city is.
It will be interesting to see how the competition between the three services now develops, as I think the CAT is only really supported by saturation advertising to naive tourists.
Does Heathrow Airport have any legal requirement to operate Heathrow Express or at least to keep public transport modal share high? I always assumed it was created as a compliance/greenwashing operation that even in its heyday didn’t really make any money once you considered its inefficient operation, nevermind the capital costs. Therefore whether it needs to continue to exist is more of a strategic/political question than a financial one, and hinges on what proportion of its passengers would switch to taxis rather than XR.
From a passenger point of view my gut is that if the Gatwick Express can survive (and thrive?) when a far cheaper alternative exists that practically takes the same amount of time, then HEX can survive too. There will always be businesses that buy the more expensive ticket for their employee without batting an eyelid, there will always be tourists who don’t really care about the extra cost and value the time saving, there will always be tourists who don’t realise they’ve got on the significantly more expensive service but get charged for it, and there will still be a lot of passengers who change trains at Paddington and see the HEX platforms before they reach the Elizabeth line.
No doubt the other factors may end up killing the service but I think there will always be a market for HEX.
Personally, I think HEx has enough of a strong brand and decent marketing that it will live on. It’s market is people who would otherwise jump in a black cab to Zone 1, so abstraction to the Lizzie Line is (in my view) unlikely to be that high. HEx passengers aren’t “normal” passengers in that respect. If anything, the Lizzie Line may bring an “external economy of scale” to HEx by making main line rail travel to/from Heathrow more prominent in general.
I also think Old Oak Common is a good opportunity for HEx, acting as a fast shuttle on/off HS2 services sold as a through fare (though it’s not obvious how a premium fare could still be charged/enforced with a Common barrier line with other GWML services at Old Oak). Even today there are a reasonable number of GWR “double back” journeys made into Paddington and out again to reach Heathrow.
I do suspect HEx will have to get more tactical with fares, although their existing Advance fares are already are bargain if you can book in Advnace. Plus they have offers like kids go free, which makes the fare surprisingly attractive to a family group already.
I think the big advantage that Crossrail has is that Paddington really isn’t that well connected, especially for the business passengers who don’t care about the cost. Getting into Tottenham court road / Liverpool st / Canary wharf makes much more sense.
The other commentator is right that as soon as expense policies start clamping down on heathrow express it might make a big dent.
However this all presupposes they dont just drop their prices, £15 might swing it for most people
@Ianno87 “it’s not obvious how a premium fare could still be charged/enforced with a Common barrier line”
Same as originally with on-board train captains, could have supplement readers on the platform and train.
Neither the Elizabeth line, Piccadilly or Heathrow Express have more than a 10 minute time advantage when connecting to Southeastern at Charing Cross or Cannon Street. At which point, Heathrow Express or even the Elizabeth is not worth the added cost.
Thanks for the informative comments so far. A few observations:
Greenwashing
I think nowadays Heathrow is anxious to present itself in as favourable light as possible. However, the metric that seems to be applied to a at least some airports in the UK is, I believe, to aim for at least 60% of airport users to arrive and leave by public transport. I don’t think it really matters to anyone whether on not that public transport is provided by the airline on not. You could argue if the percentage went up by handing over to the Elizabeth line then that would improve green credentials.
Fare enforcement
As stated, at worst you check fares on the train. Omitted from the article and discussion is the issue of first class fares. This can only be enforced on the train. If the Elizabeth line stopped at Old Oak Common at the relief (slow) platforms and Heathrow Express stopped at the fast GWML platforms then pink readers on the slow platforms with announcements (multi-lingual?) to use the pink readers would be all you need. There are other potential strategies such as noting the time going through the barriers at Heathrow and making a presumption as to which type of train was being used.
Discounted fares
One thing I hadn’t realised was the range and extent of discounted or even free fares available. This seems to make the economics of the service much worse than I had imagined.
Why charge premium fares at all?
It is hard to ascertain the actual Elizabeth line fare to Paddington from Heathrow. According to Tfl’s single fare finder it is £5.50 going up to £5.60 in March. Clearly this is wrong. According to Heathrow Airport’s website it is £12.80 which sounds right.
At £12.80 I would have thought we are virtually at the point where Heathrow Express could charge the same as TfL for all fares which would solve a lot of problems. It would probably lead to a loss of revenue but this could to a large extent be counteracted but the opportunity to reduce costs e.g. get rid of pushy sales staff, Heathrow staff at Paddington, any need to maintain their own system of collecting fares since they could just piggy-back off TfL. They could be part of the travelcard scheme (if TfL would permit it – but why not?) which would lead to a potential loss of revenue when allocating travelcard splits. It would make rail travel far more attractive as passengers from Heathrow could catch the first train regardless of company if they wanted without the issue of worrying about cost issues. It would give them stronger case for staying if that is what they want to do in the long term. Obviously, they would need staff to get first class passengers to tap on the train so that the first class premium was collected.
PoP
The TfL Fare finder will show the £5.50 fare from Paddington to Heathrow (I used T5) if it is from Underground Station to Underground Station. If from Station to Station then it will show £11.50, both fares quoted on a contactless basis. Where the price differential between using the Elizabeth Line and Heathrow Express becomes more important is for journeys that start elsewhere in London. An Anytime Single from Romford to T5 is £12.80, from Orpington or Purley £14.10 Peak or £13.30.
@Pedantic of Purley
There’s a considerable display bug in the Single Fare Finder: you have to know to use “Terminal 2/3 or 4 or 5 RAIL Station” to show the Liz Line fares, otherwise it’s assuming you’re on tube.
Thank you. So the current fare is £11.50 shortly to be £12.20. PoP
Another discount I have often used on the HX is having a Network Card allows you to buy “yourself and up to three adults travelling with you” the ticket at £16.50 each way. Given that my use of Heathrow has rarely being in weekday peak over the years, this discount had almost always been usable.
I did note this week that there are four wide ticket barriers on the Heathrow Express (two each way) platforms 6 and 7 at Paddington . I suspect that the HX arriving on a un-barriered platform such as platform 1 at Paddington only happens during engineering works or a severe weather event.
It’s possibly also worth noting that the Stansted Express trains to/from Liverpool Street call at Tottenham Hale for interchange with the Victoria Line and this is a highly used interchange: this would suggest that the HX trains calling at OOC wouldn’t be a disadvantage.
You note that “More difficult is to determine how Heathrow Express is faring as they are a private company and, obviously, their passenger loadings and fare revenue is a commercially sensitive secret”. As a UK company they do have some reporting obligations to Companies House. Website T&Cs suggest the operating company is Heathrow Express Operating Company Limited, for which reporting is at https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03145133/filing-history. The most recent annual report currently available is for 2021 – this and previous filing contain a wealth of information, but on fare revenue specifically, the 2021 figure was £23.3m from 1.19m passengers.
PoP
Your question: “Why charge premium fares at all?”
This is answered by the truism that there is no end to the limits of human gullibility & that “There’s one born every minute”
Both of which { IMHO } HAL have been exploiting for years.
There’s quite a lot of information about HAL’s perception of HEX future prospects in their submission to the CAA arguing for a better future airport charges settlement than the CAA have proposed for H7 (Jan 2022-Dec 2026). It’s available, with some redactions, here:
https://www.caa.co.uk/media/hjsnzxfm/heathrow-s-cap2265-response-redacted-1.pdf
376 pages, but a search for “Express” (Match Case on) turns up lots of hand-wringing – eg:
“Crossrail: Heathrow Express will be competing with a service that is cheaper, more frequent and seamlessly connects to the rest of the TfL network. We estimate an 18% impact to yields and a 21% impact to mode share from its introduction.” on p.183.
As is normal, HAL are pleading near-destitude inability to fund future investment here, and their submission needs to be read through that lens rather than as the employers of a bunch of latter-day Hare Krishna airport muggers trying to subject unsuspecting inbound tourists to a Moron Tax, but they do seem pretty pessimistic about the impact of Crossrail on HEX.
One thing that could make a bigger difference than Heathrow Western Access via Langley to the whole proposition, albeit in a far less developed state, would be if the Southern Access / Heathrow Southern Railway were to became a reality. Suspect that HEX will be long dead by that time however.
@PoP ” they would need staff to get first class passengers to tap on the train so that the first class premium was collected. ”
Everything ‘can’ be automated. Driver on arrival can vacate the train and close the first carriage doors. First passengers are advised to board through the adjacent standard carriage and activate the first connecting door with their ticket. CCTV and sensors check one entry per ticket, conditions stipulate only one entry per ticket with a double penalty for abuse. Exit doors open as usual.
Given the unknown longer term future for HeX isn’t debate about OOC interchange redundant. Until then fare collection is verified at Paddington for both departures and arrivals.
HAL’s investment is in the infrastructure not the service. Rather than track access charges (capped) they would have been better advised to negotiate a passenger carried facility fee and not be so concerned about the trains.
The HeX value is in the positioning of LHR as 15 mins from ‘downtown’ being a first tier international airport with all the expected amenities including a dedicated Express justifying their landing fees.
How long are most HX trains? Are they 1, 2 or 3 units long,?
I lived near Paddington for 20 years and for ten of those travelled several times weekly to the Newbury area. I was also a frequent user of the HEX. Back in the day, you could check in at noon at Paddington for a flight that evening and then hop to the West End for lunch with friends without the hassle of baggage. Oh how I missed that when it went away
I never quite understood the HEX. Just an elitist service for business travellers and uninformed tourists mostly. Almost predatory pricing (still is – discounts at 90 days out!) It was only “fast” if there were no issues on the lines, and that is a rare day indeed. It hogs two prime platforms at Paddington – for whose benefit? You see mothers with prams, luggage and a dog struggling down to the wilds of Platform 13 while the HEX just sits there smugly. Adding the turnstiles made things even worse, but heaven forbid someone evade a fare – rather inconvenience many thousands instead. As turnstiles were added to the Paddington lines, I wondered how much they cost to install and operate, and given that something like two-thirds of rail services are subsidy, just how many thousands of passengers must be inconvenienced at the barriers just to pay off the installation? Madness
The Western loop for Reading access to Heathrow seems like a no-brainer – unless, of course you are a Westminster politician. Reading? Where’s that? In theory you can travel to West Drayton (or a nearby station) and switch trains to reverse into Heathrow from Reading, but little or no thought has been given to this and from what I can tell, you’d be left standing on a platform in the rain for an undetermined time. So of course just go into Paddington (causing extra congestion and at extra cost) and take the HEX or Elizabeth Line service instead
I do hope the HEX disappears. I think it sends all the wrong messages about transport in the UK
This article does suggest that getting rid of HEX could have more benefits than retaining it. The brand could even be retained and commercialised by HAL on the Liz Line semi-fasts to Heathrow described in the article.
So the problem is original market swallowed. How about new markets?
Less paths on the GwML might mean HAL/HEx could focus on new markets such as a Birmingham to Heathrow via Chilterns/Greenford (prioritising comfort not time which HS2/OOC will win). Also could the Western access principle be revived with a turnback at Hayes, and if successful then the western access tunnels come back into play. And also if any of the above happen, at what stage does the Heathrow Southern access link to Midlands come into play; I also think something could be done via the Hounslow-Southall line for short term Southern access.
When the HE (Heathrow Express) first got underway I paid a fiver and was bussed to a wooden deck built out in a hay field somewhere (it was raining). The HE arrived and soon we were in my favourite station. Ah memories !
Re greenwashing:
A counter argument could be made that making public transit to Heathrow worse might reduce flying, which would in total be a benefit for the environment. Some sort of study / research would be needed to tell the actual environmental impact of public transit to airports.
Re quantity of stock: I’m surprised that the contract for buying the Crossrail trains didn’t include a few options for buying more trains, up to whichever amount of trains that would be needed for a theoretical 24 tph Reading-Abbey Wood and 24 tph Liverpool Street – Shenfield (taking this as some sort of maximum possible amount of trains ever needed within a reasonable future timespan). I don’t know how this works in the UK, but for example in Sweden it is really common to make provisions for buying optional extra trains as part of the contract for buying the fist batch of trains. The contracts generally stipulate a fixed price, a fixed quantity to order and a date where the buyer has to had placed the order for the contract to be valid. This is partially a thing to force future politicians to follow the set path as the optional extra trains usually come at a better price than if you would start a new procurement process.
Re both HEX and HS2 trains continuing eastwards from Old Oak Common: Technically it doesn’t matter if people with regular TfL / rail tickets are allowed to enter these trains at OOC as any HEX and HS2 premium travellers already have their seats. The exception is if there are so many travellers that the trains are rammed, then it gets considerably uncomfortable for the premium travellers, but a simple solution could be some sort of crowd control. In the other direction there is a real problem with ticket barriers, local travellers getting in the way for the premium longer distance travellers and whatnot. The simple solution is to just accept that some things can’t be symmetrical and just allow local travel eastwards but not westwards.
Re the HEX brand: Sure it’s a well recognized name, but I would also think that it’s a name that might deter people from entering a train unless they are well informed about a possible future reuse of the name for some service with the same fare as regular EL trains.
Btw I’ve never had a look at HEX prices, but from what I recall from a bunch of years ago the Stanstead Express had different pricing depending on if you entered the ticket sales site directly (most expensive) or followed an advertisement banner link on an airline (cheaper) and also the price differed between different airlines. At the time the train tickets were the cheapest if you followed the link from the Ryan Air web site. (There might had been other ways to buy a ticket that might had been even cheaper though).
I fully agree with comments who don’t like that HEX partially is a scheme to scam less informed people of their money. Every hurdle or things that makes you feel that you were in some way scammed by public transiti a deterrent for using public transit on future trips.
Re a possible link westwards to Reading and also a possible link to the Waterloo Windsor lines: It’s unfortunate that the Windsor lines don’t really connect to that many places. Sure, it would be possible to run a train Staines – Virginia Water – Byfleet & New Haw and onwards on the Southwestern mainline. However that would be a slow route. If a possible link to south west of London from Heathrow would be better then it would make sense to run trains (beyond?)-Reading-GWR-Heathrow-Waterloo and (beyond-)Basingstoke or Guildford – Heathrow – Paddington. The nice thing about running such services is that they would just swap capacity at Paddington and Waterloo, i.e. won’t require any capacity upgrades / additional trains eastwards of Heathrow. This could be a way to please the NIMBYs that oppose a connection between Heathrow and the Southwestern rail network.
@MiaM
I’m still perplexed as to why the Heathrow Terminal 5 line couldn’t have been joined to the old Poyle Halt (closed 29 March 1965) and taken to Staines via Yeoveney Halt (closed 14 May 1962). Southern access to Heathrow T5 is literally 1.4km away from a disused line.
BB
But then HAL wouldn’t make any money from it!
@Brian Butterworth:
After actually looking at a map with photos of the area it’s even harder to understand why it didn’t happen.
TBH to somehow satisfy the NIMBYs they could had built a line to a separate station in Staines, requiring passengers to change trains, just to officially not add any trains to the Windsor lines while creating public opinion for actually connecting the lines. To get away with something like that they could had blamed different electrifications (compare somewhat with Crossrail at Abbey Wood).
@Greg T:
Surely HAL would make money from access to the Heathrow area?
BB MiaM
https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/#zoom=13.0&lat=51.47038&lon=-0.50294&layers=1&b=1
Underneath the M25, single track, poor quality, outdated, inadequate.
Northern section served the fuel delivery depot before the pipeline network. Dismissed for HeX consideration as cheaper to build the new one. Even for a western access it would only be used for service trains and construction.
@Aleks
I was thinking of something simple like the single-track that there is from Terminal 2/3 to Terminal 4. That’s a simple 2.97km single-line to a dual platform.
Running a southern access to Staines on the disused alignment would be about at total of 4.2km from T5 – to join the existing line to Staines would allow the South Western Railway passengers full access to the airport (in minutes) without having to go into Waterloo (34 minutes), and change to the Liz line at Bond Street (47 min).
It certainly looks like there is space just north of the Windsor and Eton branch line at Staines where you could stick and extra platform for a terminating service.
Even Luton is charging £4.90 for their new “DART” service and that’s just 2km, I would project there would be lots of takers for a short £10-a-trip Liz Line or HX from Staines if it saves you a 81 minute trip into Central London just to catch a plane!
@Brian Butterworth:
Re pricing, I would think that as soon as Heathrow becomes a feasible place to change trains, there would be a need to set the prices so any premium only applies when someone actually enters or exits the station, not just changing trains. A slightly tricky question is what to do with changes between a Staines-Heathrow train and the Picadilly line. I would think that it would be desirable for public transit in general if passengers do that change rather than change within the central parts of London, and therefore it could be an out-of-station interchange which gives a lower fare than if you just enter or exit a rail station at Heathrow. On the other hand, this might make it possible to get a lower fare if you just tap in to the underground without actually entering if the maximum underground penalty fare is lower than the premium for using rail to Heathrow.
I’d say that this needs some thought but it is in no way a hindrance for building a southern rail connection.
Access from Staines and other stations on that line to Heathrow is made unnecessarily difficult by the ludicrous decision to stop buses to Heathrow serving Feltham station directly leaving potential travellers an unsigned 3 or 4 minute walk from the station to the nearest bus stop.
Btw, re the NIMBYs along the Windsor lines (that more or less rightfully don’t want the road-rail-crossings to be closed for road traffic more than today): How about selling the southern rail to Heathrow as an extension of Crossrail to Staines?
@MiaM
Great idea! I visited the site today and I realised that there is a reasonably simple way to make this happen.
The main problem is that the rail system within the airport isn’t AC overhead cable power and ETCS signalling, whereas Staines is third-rail power and non-ETCS signals.
I suggest that the straightforward way to provide the airport link it to take over 1.8km of the “up” line by converting the Windsor down line to bi-directional third-rail power for the half-hourly service to Winsor. Once this is done, connect the “up” rails to a new platform “0” so to create a step-free connection to the line.
Looking at the on the ground, the old railway line actually exists from the point 1.8km west of Staines until the point where it was replaced with the M25 road! Clearly the line could be built using the old alignment to that point and then turn around to reach the Terminal 5 using a cut-and-cover tunnel though the fields.
You would end up with a copy of the Romford-Upminster line, of course, but given the location it not going to cause more than the movement of a bike shelter.
If you wanted more services than the half-hourly Romford-Upminster the T5 to Staines line would need a passing loop half way along.
As I understand it there are already 6 Elizabeth Line trains per hour to Terminal 5 – the two that are direct, and the four to Terminal 4, where you alight at Terminal 2/3 and stay on the platform for the Express coming behind to Terminal 5. Travel on the Express is free between the Heathrow terminals, so there is no extra charge for this.
I suggest that those with their south-of-Heathrow crayons out would find it helpful to take a look at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/southern-access-to-heathrow-strategic-objectives/southern-access-to-heathrow-strategic-objectives, https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Southern-Rail-Access-to-Heathrow-Feasibility-Study.pdf and https://heathrowrail.com/.
The Elizabeth line service at Hanwell is truly laughable – we get 4tph all of which are stuffed to the rafters with Heathrow passengers. And with short platforms you can’t easily head for a quieter carriage, if such things are even a thing any more.
I long for the day HEX is absorbed into the Elizabeth line somehow to absorb Heathrow travellers. I suppose it would be like fast trains on the Met. The bay platform at Hayes sits empty now, so there would be lots of easy and positive adjustments that could come from such a change.
@M
To be fair, there never was a better service ever promised for Hanwell, West Ealing, Acton Main Line and Southall. Most of the westbound trains were always planned to reverse at Paddington and never was the capacity to provide more because of the necessity of providing slots in the timetable for freight trains.
You might find this document of interest: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/London-Rail-Freight-Strategy-Summary-Report.pdf
@ Brian Butterworth
Is iit really necessary for freight to be moved during peak hours?
Peak hours?
The Elizabeth line (and GWR service on the relief lines) is the same off-peak as it is in the peak.
@Betterbee:
Thanks for the links.
I would say that the Network Rail feasibility study seems stuck in a thought process where any additions must fit in without changing/removing any existing services while also providing what they think is the optimal connections in some arbitrary way. Sure, they refer to some market study and I’m not questioning the trustworthiness of that study. However it’s weird that they didn’t seem to think anything about through running through Heathrow.
They even state that they would need a reversing facility north of Heathrow to be able to reverse the new trains, rather than stating the obvious that the same trains should both fulfil today’s Crossrail and Heathrow Express services and continue on the southwestern network.
Diagrams for a proposed flyover at Basingstoke is shown three times in two different versions. It seems like Network Rail might be more interested in building a flyover in Basingstoke than actually connecting the airport.
Also they seem super keen on running (semi-)fast services between Heathrow and Waterloo. Is that really necessary given that there already exists fast services to Paddington and decent services to all Crossrail stations?
@Brian Butterworth: That London freight report seems like a sad read.
The only actual data in it are some graphs about rail freight in the UK, not specific to London, and a map of freight routes and terminals in London but without any information of quantities for each location. Then it is a sad read with some suggestions for tiny improvements.
Sure, this might be what actually is possible to do within budget constrains, but if Network Rail won’t even give any data about how much freight goes in to and out from London specifically and how much is through running (I include intermodal freight as through running even if it is transfered between ship and rail within London) then it must be super hard for anyone who has some influence on the decision makings to make any argument for something better than doing small things like installing an extra platform/track at Clapham Junction.
It would had been way better if the report said that on an average week day there are A number of freight trains of average length B and C percent of them are through running, and of the through running D percent is intermodal using a ship port within greater London. Add a pie chart diagram showing how much local cargo is delivered from or to each cargo station, and what the pie chart diagram would look like if cargo never were rerouted to other terminals due to capacity reasons.
If the report would say that a large percentage is through running between ports east of London to other parts of the country then there would be a rather easy case to be made for a semi circular cargo bypass line along the green belt. Especially if all this were electrified and all trains were required to use electric traction on at least this part you could argue that the emissions / environment pollution would be reduced in the areas such green belt bypass would be built in, as it would reduce both road and rail cargo using diesel engines in the same general area. Also, although there are some natural obstacles, most of the greenbelt and areas outside of the green belt are generally flat enough to not require any expensive man made structures. The only major cost would be overpasses and underpasses where there would be crossings with other major infrastructure. Otherwise it seems like more or less the cheapest place to build rail on. And I would say that cost-benefit is a major thing, at least if we don’t let Nimbys get their way. I don’t know the UK rules about land acquisition but I would say that if possible Network Rail could just do land acquisition on every Nimby along a possible route, and when the route is built they could just sell back the land to whoever and then the new owner would just have to put up with a railway in their vicinity.
@BB “Heathrow airport is supplied with a fifth of its aviation fuel by cross-London flows of freight
trains”
Coryton Refinery ceased production in June 2012.
Occidental Refinery Canvey Island demolished in 1996–7.
Shell Haven port and oil refinery closed in 1999 and the site was purchased by DP World for the new London Gateway.
Government Pipeline and Storage System (GPSS) now the CLH Pipeline System built in 1959 by Shell-Mex and BP from the GPSS depot at Walton on Thames to Heathrow Airport.
1963 Esso built pipeline from their Fawley refinery to London Heathrow. This is due to be replaced, announced in June 2018, with a route from Southampton.
Colnbrook Heathrow airport 12″ 200psi Aviation kerosene
Fawley Esso West London oil terminal 105km 10/12″ 1000psi 1972 Aviation kerosene
Buncefield Walton on Thames 6/8″ 1300psi via Longford junction (spur to Heathrow airport) Aviation kerosene
Walton on Thames Heathrow airport 6″ 720psi 1959
The Colnbrook site on the Staines GWR branch ? Was this redeveloped
Walton on Thames BP – was this originally barge delivery ?
@AndyCon
I’ve just been though the Working Timetable “PF01 OLD OAK COMMON TO READING” (weekday) and looking at Acton Main Line Station as a useful point of interest, there are actually only three freight trains between 0708 and 0932 and none between the 1522 and 1908. They do run though the night (at slower speeds).
@MiaM
This is a list of the Origins and Destinations of the freight timetable trains that pass though Acton Main Line at some point during a weekday., they appear in 138 combinations (looking at “forward bank”).
Acton Lane Reception Sdgs
Acton T.C.
Allington Hanson Agg
Angerstein Wharf (Tarmac)
Angerstein Wharf Flhh
Ardingly Hanson Aggregates
Bardon Hill Gbrf
Barking Eurohub (Dbc)
Bow Depot Flhh
Bow East (Db Cargo)
Brentfd Tn W.Waste R.T.S
Brentford Town Day & Sons
Brentford Town Days Flhh
Calvert
Chelmsford Recp.
Churchyard Sdgs (Flhh)
Cliffe Brett Marine
Cliffe Brett Marine Gbrf
Cliffe Hill Stud Fm Tarmac
Crawley F.Y.(Flhh)
Crawley New Yard (Gbrf)
Crawley New Yard R.M.C.
Crewe Bas Hall S.S.M.
Cricklewood A To E Sidings
Cricklewood Aggregates Dbc
Dagenham Dock A.R.C.
Daventry Int Rft Recep Fl
Db Cargo Fan A And B Sdgs
Dereham Ukf Gbrf
Dollands Moor Sdgs
Dowlow Briggs Sdgs
Felixstowe North F.L.T.
Grain Foster Yeoman Gbrf
Grain Oil Terminal (Flhh)
Grain Oil Terminal Gbrf
Grain Thamesport (Gbrf)
Harlow Mill Fhh
Hitchin Engineers Sdgs
Hither Green Down Recp.
Hope (Earles Sidings) Fhh
Hothfield Siding
Humberstone Road
Ipswich Griffin Wharf
London Gateway Frghtliner
Luton Crescent Road (Gbrf)
Neasden Engineers Sdgs
Newhaven Day Aggregates
Newhaven Day Aggs (Flhh)
Newhaven Marine Ag Tml Dbc
Northampton Castle Yrd Gbf
Northolt Sidings
Paddn Yd Marcon Topmix
Peterborough L.I.P.
Purfleet Deep Wtr Wf (Rfd)
Purfleet Foster Yeoman Fhh
Purley Yd Day Aggs (Flhh)
Ripple Lane Flt (Dbc)
Salfords Aggregate Sdg
Shoeburyness Mod Gbrf
Southall T.C.
Stewarts Lane Tarmac Fhh
Tilbury Container Srvs Gb
Tilbury Lct (Flt)
Tolworth Day Aggs (Flhh)
Tunstead Sdgs
Tunstead Sdgs Gbrf
Watford London Con. (Flhh)
Wellingborough Up Tc Gbrf
Wembley Receptions 1-7
Willesden Dc Rail Sidings
Willesden Euroterminal
Willesden ‘F’ Sidings
Willesden Old Oak Sidings
Willesden S.W.S.
MiaM
It would, um, HELP, if the two tiny gaps { Pointed out by my self, long-ago } in the “knitting” were filled in, for the ease of freight movements:
Acton Wells Jcn – Acton Yard
and
Junction Rd Jun – Carlton Rd Jcn
Both under a mile long (!)
@Betterbee
Looking at the attached documents about the Southern Heathrow Airport Access, there are basically five approaches:
– Run a third-rail power lines from somewhere on the South Western Railway to the airport and but don’t physically interconnect the railways but use existing South Western Railway to provide a connection to one of the Heathrow stations and use the existing SWR train fleet to provide services to this new destination without disturbing the existing timetable. These SWR trains would turn back at wherever they terminate.
– Create a Farringdon/Ebbsfleet International/Ashford International-style interchange where some new trains like the Javelins (Class 395) or Thameslink (Class 700) can switch between the overhead and third-rail power system so that trains could travel from somewhere like Staines to Heathrow and continue though the airport onto the (already-fully-booked) GWR relief line via the Airport Junction.
– Use (again new) battery power capable trains to take the third-rail-powered SWR trains though the airport so they could connect to somewhere else north of the airport (like the Greenford branch) to turn around and recharge?
– My above solution (but mostly double-tracked) which is the reverse of the first one to just create a non-interconnect exchange at Staines, perhaps with the later hope that in 20 years that the interconnection train fleet would be create to allow services to then run though from Woking, Guildford (via Chertsey) and Basingstoke (via Camberley).
– Extend the Piccadilly Line a single stop from to Terminal 5 to Staines using the abandoned branch and on-order new Piccadilly line stock (not even likely as TfL doesn’t like dealing with non-London locations).
@Brian Thanks, the link is interesting. It isn’t really a scheduling thing though, but more that we have ended up with all of the problems and none of the reward of tbe EL. I’ve just got off the train and almost every other seat in my carriage was blocked by luggage – the trains are just not suited to be primarily serving airport traffic, and because all our trains come from there they’re all the same. We don’t get any trains that don’t serve the airport, unlike most other stations.
Interestingly even this very well researched publication predicted 6 trains an hour though: https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/crossrail-timetable-for-success/
M: “none of the reward of EL” – could not through trains to just about the whole of central London perhaps be seen as some sort of improvement?
All: the new timetable from May is now on the TfL website.
@Betterbee: When weighed up against all of the negative aspects, I no longer think it’s been an improvement personally. Reliability on this section of the line has never been poorer sadly.
Great article.
I suspect at Heathrow Terminal 5 passengers just take the first train regardless of wherever it is HE or EL.
Currently at terminal 5, 2 tph EL and 4 tph HE, passengers are much more likely to have Heathrow express as the next train and it could be 30 minutes until the Elizabeth Line.
However if the EL were 4tph, passengers would 50:50 as to whether the next train was EL and the EL would only ever be 7 minutes or so after any express train. At that point HE looks like it will struggle
The currently timetabled EL service or 4tph to Terminal 4 (the least used terminal) and 2tph to Terminal 5 (the busiest terminal) is, as quoted in the article, “absurd”.
TfL only have to flick a switch to timetable 4tph Terminal 5 and 2tph Terminal 4. Then, HE is toast.
I think the only reason that’s not happened is it would overwhelm the intermediate stations into Paddington. West Ealing is already standing room only at peak times
Thank you POP,
at last a post that gets a stream of informed comment. Just like the old days!
Now I remember why I value this site. Well done everyone.
M
Interestingly even this very well researched publication predicted 6 trains an hour though: https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/crossrail-timetable-for-success/
It would have been 6 trains an hour if the ‘final’ timetable commenced in December 2019 as originally planned.
What has changed since then is that from May 2023 the GWR semi-fasts will have transferred to the fast lines giving the Crossrail planners more opportunity to be flexible with the timetable. An obvious desire was to remove what intermittent stops they could from the Elizabeth line trains to and from Terminal 5. I bet they would have removed Hayes & Harlington and West Ealing as well if they could have done.
Thank you for writing this PoP – a great, detailed article as usual.
Referencing the “Crossrail: Timetable for Success?” article you referenced in the comment above, it would be really interesting to understand the key factors that removed the possibility of inner west London stations receiving the frequency proposed when that article was written in 2018.
Is the primary factor GWR semi-fasts moving to the fast lines? Or were other factors present before the semi-fasts moving was agreed?
With TfL being London-centric, I’d have though the more likely result of increased flexibility for Crossrail planners would be more trains stopping at inner west London stations, not less? Or is there a benefit to capturing more of the outer London market from a fares perspective?
It’s worth noting the discussion on the Wikipedia Crossrail RDT map page – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template_talk:Crossrail_RDT about the service pattern which seem to date back to 11 January 2009. There have been long-running discussions about the service patterns based on the published TfL / Crossrail Ltd publications, most of which have followed the Wikipedia reference rules.
Are there any financial incentives for TfL to make other lines more attractive than the Elizabeth Line?
Just a few more comments from using the services through to T5
– The “easy connection” at Heathrow T23 from an Elizabeth train going to T4 to the Express for the last leg to T5 is not so, because the timetable is so arranged that the Liz train to T4 comes right behind the Express, meaning almost a 15 minute wait.
– There is seemingly no information at the Heathrow stations on which train is next to London. You need to buy your relevant ticket before going through the gates.
– The departure indicators at Heathrow are not particularly clear, primarily showing final destination, either London Paddington or Abbey Wood, which for those unfamiliar with the system must leave them confused. The intermediate Liz stations are in scrolling smaller type, Paddington just appearing intermittently with the others.
– There doesn’t seem any clear information at T5 on how to get to T23 without charge. It must be there somewhere but I couldn’t see it.
– The uniformed platform assistance staff at Heathrow seem to come out a couple of minutes before an Express departure, then disappear again until the next one, quite ignoring any Liz train.
Mr Beckton – Getting from T5 to T23 is clearly marked as you come out of Flight Arrivals as are the special ticket machines that will give you a free ticket to do the journey.
The main daytime service has Elizabeth Line T4 terminating trains arriving at T23 at 21 and 51 minutes past the hour with the Heathrow Express leaving T23 for T5 at 27 and 57. In reverse from T5 at 12 and 42, arriving T23 at 17 and 47. T4 originating Elizabeth Line trains call at T23 at 22 and 52.
@James Bunting: And it clearly states that you can transfer between terminals on the Liz, HX or Piccadilly lines for free. You can either use the “special ticket machines”, or an Oyster or Contactless card for no charge.
@ Mr Becton – please remember that the stations at Heathrow are the private property of Heathrow Airport Limited and NOT part of the UK state supported passenger railway network where the stations are owned by the Government (via Network Rail) and train operators merely lease them from said nationalised body.
It is for this reason that Heathrow is able to manipulate the information (and staffing) at ‘their’ station so as to maximise revenue to the Heathrow company something that would not be tolerated were it part of the proper national rail network.
However with regard to the apparent prominence of HEX trains serving Paddington over TfL services, I’m reminded that back in the 1980s following the launch of the Gatwick Express, British Rail re-arranged how they described trains departing from Gatwick so- anything which terminated at London Victoria that wasn’t a Gatwick express (e.g. trains from Brighton, Hastings, Bognor, etc were described as terminating at Clapham Junction (plainly daft to anyone who had ever been to CJ or knew anything about that station). I believe this practice remained in place until the early 1990s when BR was divided into proper business sectors and NSE decided they were fed up losing out on potential revenue to InterCity so they got London Victoria put back on display for their services.
Of course the basic problem here is the way (1) the UK treats rail transport to and from airports as a premium product and not a basic public transport service and (2) The belief of certain ideological groups that rail on rail competition in anything is always good!
The rail link to Heathrow was built (with the full encouragement of the Government of the day) to be a mostly privately funded project (even more so after BR was forced to give up any interest in operation of the link so as to make rail privatisation easier) a ‘premium’ product. (with a ‘those who worry about price can slum it on the tube’ sort of mentality). Yes TfL has effectively been able to force access onto ‘the posh boys trainset’ to coin a phrase – but it doesn’t mean Heathrow like it or want to do anything which undermines their product in areas which they do control (i.e. Heathrow stations)
Heathrow destination of I of Grain Kent fuel tanker trains passing West London line and Acton are the ‘Elf’ oil sidings at Colnbrook (truncated end of the GWR Staines branch).
The BPA Colnbrook Rail Terminal incorporates a rail offloading facility and a 1.9km 12” pipeline feeding the Northern Fuel Receipt Facility at London Heathrow Airport. The terminal receives Jet A-1 product by freight train from oil refineries. The fuel is then transported onwards to Heathrow’s Northern Fuel Receipt Facility via the Colnbrook Pipeline.
https://www.google.com/maps/@51.4792078,-0.5093134,3a,75y,14.28h,95.22t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s5kObX50RtTeaVPnlCk6IhA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
Any relevance in the Tfl announcement this week that more EL trains are needed?
‘Given the recent announcement around the delays to High Speed 2 terminating at Euston station, TfL also needs to begin procurement for additional Elizabeth line trains. These are needed to provide extra capacity once the new Old Oak Common station opens and High Speed 2 services begin in the early 2030s. Without them, there is likely to be insufficient capacity on the Elizabeth line for those looking to travel on High Speed 2, as they will need to use the Elizabeth line to travel to and from Central London until HS2 is extended to Euston station in the 2040s’
https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2023/march/annual-budget-for-2023-24-shows-tfl-set-to-deliver-operating-surplus
I’m not trying to predict what will happen, but if you were about to launch a procurement progressing politically charged options such as buying enough rolling stock to kill the Heathrow Express, then you might not want to say that yet. Something like the above would announcement would do nicely.
It also occurred to me that a savvy future Heathrow passenger might prefer a cheaper, 10 minutes slower journey – but with a guaranteed seat through to Canary Wharf. The express leaves you joining a scrum of HS2 and Heathrow Express passengers fighting to get on EL trains at Old Oak Common which is not going to appeal.
TfL press release about the new May timetable has been published everywhere with bold claims
“Paddington’s first westbound train will leave earlier at 4.36am for Heathrow Terminal 5, arriving ten minutes earlier at 4.42am.”
Howard Smith, TfL’s director of the Elizabeth Line.
TfL will be highlighted during electioneering for the next year. Friday 3 day weekend off peak fares suggested and longer Hopper times. The West London Orbital is being touted as a likely to progress scheme for the next decade, “first proposed by the Mayor in his 2018 Transport Strategy” even though “In March 2017 the West London Alliance group of local authorities commissioned a study to assess the feasibility of the line”.
Paddington to Heathrow Terminal trains timings w.e.f. 21.05.2023: https://www.ukpocketguide.com/2023/03/paddington-to-heathrow-terminal.html?m=1
Analysing the new Elizabeth Line timetable it’s hard to see the value of the T5 services skipping Acton, Hanwell and Southall. The Westbound T5 service saves a grand total of 4 minutes between Paddington and T123 vs the T4 service. Eastbound it only saves 1 minute!
All in all, I think the number of different stopping patterns West of Paddington is too user unfriendly for the marginal time savings. Casual travellers wanting any of the skipped stations are just going to get confused by it. Eventually I hope common sense will prevail and we’ll see the airport services becoming all stations, and Reading/Maidenhead services becoming all stations from H&H plus Ealing.
I’ve never really understood why Southall gets frequently missed out. The area is very populous, busy and will get busier when the Gas Works site is finally developed. And there are excellent bus links. It just seems to be an historical or habitual thing, I remember years ago watching from the footbridge and nearby, DMUs just speeding through. Perhaps the new facilities can help.
The Sunday Times (behind a paywall) has this report on recent Heathrow Express ridership affected by Crossrail:
“The opening of the Elizabeth Line has eaten into the revenues of Heathrow Express, the country’s most expensive railway service per mile travelled.
Filings reveal that Heathrow Express, which offers a 15-minute service between London Paddington and Heathrow, has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels despite flight volumes at the airport returning to near-normal. Heathrow said revenues from Heathrow Express in the first three months of the year were £22 million.
“While that is 50 per cent more than in the same period last year, when Covid-19 travel restrictions were beginning to be relaxed, it is almost a third down on the £31 million of revenues in the first quarter of 2019.
“The slow recovery has coincided with the arrival of the Elizabeth Line, the long-delayed Crossrail project that offers connections to Heathrow from south Essex and north Kent via central London and the City. Transport for London claims that the line, which has yet to introduce a full timetable to Heathrow, accounts for 30 per cent of all rail and metro services to the airport.
“A typical fare on Heathrow Express is £25 and for much of its 25 years in service that made the line a highly profitable, wholly owned cash cow of the airport. The Elizabeth Line journey takes twice as long but is about half the price.
Officials at Heathrow Express say it is not only the new route that is having an effect. The profile of flyers has changed, with more leisure passengers and fewer business travellers who are more likely to have expense accounts to pay for a ride on the Heathrow Express.
“Daniel Edwards, 40, director of Heathrow Express, said he believed the service would recover in the coming months. “We are confidently holding our position,” he said.”
And, maybe, if not the death of Heathrow itself, but, eventually:
Some really serious competition ahead? – this has been some time coming, hasn’t it?
HS2 and Old Oak
To begin: Let us all acknowledge that HS2 will never reach Manchester and that HS2 will never reach Euston. At the London end, its dedicated tracks will end at Old Oak Common station. Old Oak Rotten (as I prefer to call it) is now being built and overengineered at great cost to serve as no-one’s destination. Located within a ring of several brownfield sites, it has very poor road access which is impossible to improve, no tube connection, barely half of a London Overground service (using the Richmond branch of the former North London Line into Broad Street), and without any direct onward connection to Euston, St Pancras, or Kings Cross.
Were it ever completed, HS2 should reduce rail journey times between Euston and Birmingham by about 30 minutes. However passengers from Birmingham will in fact be required to change at Old Oak Rotten to the Elizabeth Line without any cross-platform interchange. In order to reach Central London, they will stand (seats will be in very short supply) to lose at least 20 minutes on the vaguely equivalent journey between Birmingham and Tottenham Court Road station which, as the crow flies, is about one mile due south of Euston. Because the overburdened Elizabeth Line will require extended stops at every deep level station in Central London in order to board and unload additional HS2 passengers with children and luggage travelling to/from Old Oak, it is likely that the entire hypothetical time saving of 30 minutes will vanish. And, thanks to Pedantic of Purley, one already knows that the days of the Heathrow Express are numbered, even if it were to call additionally at Old Oak Rotten.
All this leads me to propose that Paddington should and could become HS2’s (interim) London terminus. Under present arrangements it has capacity issues, but these can be overcome. For example, there is a minimum six-track alignment all the way between Old Oak and Paddington, with space, if required, for an additional two tracks dedicated to HS2 trains.
Although minor political hurdles are yet to be overcome in the short-term, the West Side rail access into Heathrow Terminal 5 from the GWR outside Slough can be built and completed long before benighted HS2 services reach Old Oak Rotten in the middle of nowhere at some time around 2030. Accordingly, rather than having all GWR services terminate at Paddington, many GWR trains (say 1 in every 3) from South Wales and the West of England would divert from the main line at Langley, and terminate underneath Heathrow Terminal 5 using the enormous phantom station already prepared for this very purpose.
In time, moreover, the West Side rail access would be extended northwards linking Denham or nearby with Heathrow so as to provide an alternative route also for HS2 trains (say 1 in every 3 likewise) into the Terminal 5 railway catacomb. Entitled ‘The Heathrow Spur’ by HS2 Ltd, its agreed route can be viewed on pages 3 and 4 of: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7def80ed915d74e33eefb0/The_Heathrow_spur_-_description_of_HS2_Ltd_s_recommended_route_and_station_options.pdf
Given that its time saving over the Elizabeth Line is only 10 minutes, I agree that it is only a matter of time before the Heathrow Express (if calling at Old Oak Rotten and priced at quadruple the TfL contactless fare) disappears, thus liberating Paddington’s platforms 6 and 7.
Once the Hammersmith & City and Circle Lines (between Royal Oak and Hammersmith) have been converted into a branch of the LUL Bakerloo tube line from Paddington westwards, platforms 14 and 15 and 16 should be repurposed to terminate GWR’s medium distance and semi-fast services from Berkshire and Oxfordshire, thus releasing yet more main concourse platform capacity – with accordingly a total of 5 liberated platforms at Paddington (compared with 6 platforms potentially at Euston) for HS2 trains to and from Birmingham, of which approximately one third will already have diverted to Heathrow Terminal 5.
At present all eastbound District Line services via Paddington confusingly terminate at Edgware Road (Circle Line station), and it is massively unhelpful that these LUL District and Circle Line trains fail to connect main line passenger arrivals with either Euston (Square) or Kings Cross St Pancras. Once the Hammersmith & City has been converted into a branch of the Bakerloo Line, District Line trains from Wimbledon via High Street Kensington would become a renamed identified LUL service, continuing beyond Edgware Road to Liverpool Street and thence to Barking.
Circle Line trains approaching Paddington from Victoria via High Street Kensington would similarly continue beyond Edgware Road. as did the former Circle Line, via Euston (Square) and Kings Cross St Pancras, thence via Liverpool Street, Victoria, and High Street Kensington, to recreate the loop. There are great advantages to removing the flat junction underneath Praed Street and, in order to assure even greater reliability, layovers in both directions (Inner and Outer rails) would be timetabled at both Edgware Road and Aldgate stations.
Because it is such an expensive white elephant in the making, I am unsure whether Old Oak Rotten is an interchange station worth salvaging. Rather poor connections with the London Overground have been proposed, including a 500 metre walk across a canal footbridge to reach a proposed new station at Hythe Road, itself in the middle of an adjacent industrial wasteland. The point of creating the highly inconvenient Hythe Road stop is to become a station at which Overground trains from Stratford can pick up those exhausted passengers from Old Oak who wish to reach Shepherds Bush (for Westfield), West Brompton (for the LUL District Line), and Clapham Junction (for pretty much everywhere in South London plus Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire).
Under present plans, I understand that the only London Overground trains to call at Old Oak Rotten would be services to/from Richmond, plus a possibility of infrequent ‘Orbital’ trains between Hendon and Hounslow, However the more important Overground services to/from Clapham Junction could in fact be diverted to call at Old Oak before using a new chord running due south to run alongside the LUL Central Line, possibly serving intermediate halts at East Acton and Hammersmith Hospital, before rejoining its existing West London Railway route just south of the A40 Westway concrete jungle.
And finally – New names for Old – an overview and critical appraisal of TfL’s Overground rail network warrants another article altogether.
John Stevens
” Let us all acknowledge that HS2 will never reach Manchester and that HS2 will never reach Euston.”
No, why should we?
It was never an engineering or operating decision, but a political point-scoring exercise …
And they have a habit of being changed, don’t they?