The UK is too distracted by European relations to take full advantage of overland trade opportunities. This was said by Henry Tillman, a London based Belt and Road specialist. “The British are currently failing to fully exploit the opportunities.”
As chairman of China Investment Research, the Chinese macro research arm of Grisons Peak merchant banking, most of Henry Tillman’s waking hours revolve around questions critical to international trade. The development of modern, rail connections, principally the three new Silk Road routes, is shaking up the air and sea duopoly.
“Rail is already showing potential to be the best blend of economy, speed and environmentally attractive options. Some Eurasian crossings are now down to twelve days”, he says. “There is even competition between rail routes, serving different markets, but the British are currently failing to fully exploit the opportunities.”
New Silk Road offers a solution that only fits a smallish subset of the goods moved to the UK. In other words, it addresses a specific hole in the market, but there is a limited size of market in the hole. Nothing to do with BrExit; much like businesses blaming poor trade on the weather.
The company I work at (a major importer into the UK) has researched using New Silk Route, and it doesn’t fit our business model, taking into account factory locations, true business/financial need for speed, UK as the major destination, and how many containers would be moved, as full containers ex factory or through consolidation processes. Existing Sea transport meets our needs adequately at lower cost, with limited expedited deliveries by air.
Potentially more useful for importers based inland in Europe, especially to the East.
Speed is a secondary consideration (and with good business planning/forecasting, would be a secondary consideration for many/most, unless goods are valuable enough and bulky enough to make reduction of working capital through faster transit a benefit and where airfreight would not be financially beneficial).